The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts crude oil prices to remain below $100 per barrel through 2023 despite OPEC’s announcement of production cuts.
According to EIA forecasts, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023, which is down from a forecast of 12.6 million barrels per day in September. Lower crude oil production in the forecast reflects lower crude oil prices in fourth-quarter 2022 than EIA previously expected.
The EIA also expects U.S. motorists to drive more through 2023, but it forecasts consumption of gasoline to average just below 9 million barrels per day in 2022 and 2023, slightly lower than the 2021 average.
“We expect that increases in vehicle fuel efficiency will offset increases in driving by U.S. motorists in the short term,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.
The entire October 2022 short-term energy outlook is available on the EIA website.
Meanwhile, the EIA expects most U.S. households will pay more to heat their homes this winter.
In its 2022 Winter Fuels Outlook, the EIA forecasts higher U.S. residential energy prices compared with 2021, as well as higher consumption of heating fuels during what is forecast to be a slightly colder winter than last year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the United States to experience a slightly colder winter than in 2021, leading to higher consumption of heating fuels. That higher consumption and higher energy prices contribute to EIA’s forecasts for higher heating costs for households.
Compared with 2021 winter heating costs, the EIA forecasts U.S. households will spend 28 percent more for natural gas, 27 percent more for heating oil, 10 percent more for electricity, and 5 percent more for propane.
U.S. households will spend even more on average if the weather is colder than expected.
The 2022 Winter Fuels Outlook includes regional breakdowns of its forecasts, which is available by clicking here.